Dodge Momentum Index up to start 2021

The Dodge Momentum Index, a monthly measure of the first report for nonresidential building projects in planning issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, increased 3.1 percent in January to 139.4.

According to Dodge Data, the momentum index has shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.

The commercial component of the momentum index moved 9.9 percent higher, offsetting an 11.7 percent decrease in the institutional component.

January’s increase marked the highest level in the momentum index since the pandemic began, Dodge Data says. Still, the firm says the momentum index is sending a warning that the construction sector’s recovery may be very uneven in the months ahead.

Institutional planning hit its lowest level since the momentum index began in 2002, as state and local governments pull back on building plans in the wake of growing budget deficits. Conversely, commercial planning is at its highest level since before the Great Recession – fueled by an increasing number of warehouse projects and, to a somewhat lesser degree, office projects.

On a year-over-year basis, the overall momentum index is 2.2 percent below January 2020. The commercial component is up 12.3 percent year-over-year, while the institutional component is down 27.7 percent.

According to Dodge Data, 13 projects – each with a value of $100 million or more – entered planning in January 2021. The leading commercial projects were a $420 million Walmart distribution center in Lancaster, Texas, and a $355 million Amazon in Arlington, Washington. The leading institutional projects were the $175 million Norman Regional Healthplex expansion in Norman, Oklahoma, and the $156 million Mercy Health Hospital in Kings Mills, Ohio.