PCA: Moderate cement consumption on the horizon

Sullivan

The Portland Cement Association (PCA) released its annual fall forecast, predicting moderate growth for cement consumption through 2019 and into 2020.

PCA Market Intelligence expects cement consumption will grow by 2.4 percent in 2019, 1.7 percent in 2020 and 1.4 percent in 2021.

“Public construction continues to receive the benefit of the 2018 federal budget that allowed for $20 billion in spending on roads, bridges, water and rail projects over 2018 and 2019,” says Ed Sullivan, PCA senior vice president and chief economist. “These gains come in the context of increased challenges at the state level to manage deficits as entitlement spending growth continues at a strong pace.”

PCA’s analysis adds that the labor market continues to power the U.S. economy and, on a monthly basis, has generated 161,000 net new jobs since the start of the year. Coupled with mild inflation rates and the continued rise of home prices, PCA expects it will take some time before the economy takes a significant downturn.

“The economy is now the longest economic expansion [in] post-World War II history,” Sullivan says. “Some of the pent-up demand zip that invigorates the initial stages of economic recovery are long past. As such, the economy is now more vulnerable to economic shocks. While PCA does not believe data revealed by the economy suggests a recession is near, it does point to a gradually weakening economy.”

PCA forecasts real GDP will grow 2.4 percent this year and weaken in subsequent years to 2.1 percent in 2020 and 1.7 percent in 2021.