Expect our economy to plow through obstacles

By |  November 11, 2019
Source: S-C Market Analytics. Click to enlarge

Source: S-C Market Analytics. Click to enlarge

The outlook remains positive for the next few years, with indications of somewhat slower gains.

The U.S. economy is the only major country pulling ahead. Everyone else is quickly slowing and not growing. If political turmoil doesn’t completely derail the economy (which we don’t think it will), then U.S. growth will continue near the 2 to 3 percent range over the next two years.

We could list a dozen things that could throw us into recession, but on balance we continue to think the economy will power through it all. The major caveat: the current policies of low corporate taxes and deregulation continue. If they don’t, much slower growth is projected.

For construction aggregate, this means continued growth in the 2 to 3 percent range and continued real price increases.

The nonbuilding segment remains the bright spot and will continue to improve without any new support from the federal government over the next two years. Residential will also gain as consumer income increases and low mortgage rates provide the support for higher home sales and building rates.

The default outlook is for continued growth in aggregate demand and solid gains in pricing.

Dr. David Chereb  has many years of experience forecasting construction materials, and his web-based forecasting models have captured every major turning point in materials demand for more than 15 years. Chereb received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Southern California.

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