Commercial projects thrust Dodge Momentum Index upward

The Dodge Momentum Index moved 3.4 percent higher in July to 124.7.

The momentum index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.

In July, the commercial component of the momentum index increased 5.3 percent while the institutional component was unchanged.

July’s Dodge Momentum Index increase was the first in all of 2020, according to Dodge. The momentum index has lost 18 percent since December 2019, with most of the decline coming in April when the pandemic led to business shutdowns across the country.

According to Dodge, the pullback has largely come from institutional planning, rather than commercial plans. State and local government revenues have been squeezed, Dodge says, as declines in economic activity have led to a drop in tax revenue just as costs related to the pandemic have skyrocketed.

The institutional component is currently 28 percent below its December 2019 peak and 21 percent lower than its year-ago level. Commercial planning is down 13 percent from its January 2020 peak, Dodge adds, but is actually 1 percent higher than its year-ago level.

In July, 13 projects – each with a value of $100 million or more – entered planning. The leading commercial projects were the first two phases of the Centene Healthcare headquarters in Charlotte, North Carolina, with each phase valued at $500 million. The leading institutional projects were the $320 million Dignity Health Hospital in Elk Grove, California, and the $155 million first phase of the West Henderson Hospital in Henderson, Nevada.